July 2, 2009 - The cameras have been serviced, the domestic bills have been paid, and enough cash is in the bank to survive its annual pounding in July. What little hair I have on my head has been cut, very short, and I’m just about ready to depart for Monaco. All that remains is a last-minute pack of purely summery clothes, both for work and leisure, before the taxi arrives to send me off on what is officially my 29th Tour de France. This is not as casual a pack is it was for last month’s races, the Dauphine-Libere and Tour de Suisse, for nothing can be left to chance at a truly global event. An extra bit of everything comes with me on the Tour – an extra camera body, an extra flashgun, an extra 300mm lens, as well as extra cables and computer supplies should something go missing or need replacing in France. Many of my software programmes have been reloaded to ensure the computer can work at its best all month; I’ve even spent a few minutes cleaning the gunk that accumulates between the keys – oh those dusty, dirty media rooms! Most especially, the laundry has been done, and I’ve five sets of everything to get me to Paris without the need to find a launderette. Yes, without doubt, covering the Tour is the pinnacle of my year – and it requires far more thought and consideration than any other races.

The only thing I can predict with any accuracy about this soon-to-start Tour de France is that this will be no ordinary Tour de France. A race that starts with a hilly time trial, followed a few days later by a long team time trial, and which then reaches its first altitude finish after just seven days cannot be considered ordinary. That’s without looking further ahead – three nasty days in the Pyrenees, three heavy stages in the Alps, and then that horrendous last-but-one-day jolt to Mont Ventoux: the organisers are laughing their heads off! Factor in other considerations – the choice to keep the Tour more-or-less in the south of the country ensures high temperatures for three weeks, a debilitating threat for all but the most super-fit champions. Think of the level of competition this year, with teams like Columbia, Cervelo, Liquigas, Quick-Step and Garmin determined to secure sprint victories when the terrain is in their favor. Then think of the really big teams – Astana, Rabobank, SaxoBank and Cervelo again – for whom the podium in Paris is a must-get-to-it challenge to maintain their lofty standing in the sport.

Most Tours start with a short Prologue, after which the race-leadership gets passed around a few sprinters’ teams until the first mountains impose their influence. Occasionally, an escape is let loose after three or four days to take the pressure off the bigger teams, and just now and then a fortunate escapee finds himself in the Yellow Jersey after those first mountains are over, only losing his status in the last week of the race. Such are the unique ingredients of this Tour – namely that the big boys will have to show themselves early, on such a tough opening week – that no script or template for it exists and that therefore anything could happen. Every team leader has a point to prove in the stage-one TT – consider how defending champion, Carlos Sastre, wants to show he can be as formidable at Cervelo as he was at CSC/SaxoBank. Consider how Sastre’s rivals must therefore show their potency as well, how men like Alberto Contador, Andy Schleck, Vladimir Karpets, Denis Menchov, Cadel Evans and Christian Vande Velde will be forced into a confrontation before the race has even left Monaco! The biggest talking point of all of all is how Lance Armstrong will fare in the opening days of his comeback Tour – how close can he get to the other team leaders, in particular to his co-leader Contador, in that opening test on Saturday?

I have managed to avoid the Lance versus Alberto debate until now, but it is a subject that must be broached in order to perceive the way Astana will approach this Tour. It would be simple to suggest that the fastest of Astana’s top two men becomes team leader after stage one, and again after the stage four TTT. Except it is not that simple, for a race as tough as this won’t actually be won in these first days – even though it can be lost. Johan Bruyneel probably has more than one plan in his head to allow for the many variations on how to launch his team on French roads this weekend. Yet I sometimes wonder how he can control the ambitions of both men. Consider that Contador is anxious to show his time trialling ability to Armstrong at the earliest possibility – he can do so on a stage-one course that seems more suited to him than it does to Lance. The comeback man is not likely to take too many risks on the twisty descent back into Monaco, yet he cannot just soft-pedal his way around the Principality with so much expectation on his shoulders. He will want to make an early strike for himself and for his legions of fans around the world, and will probably be happy to face the consequences after he has walked the walk, so to speak; I think both men will go to their maximum on Saturday in a first show of strength and then let the clock decide their immediate fate.

In any case, it is the mountains in one week’s time that will show if both Armstrong and Contador are equal in ability and strength – what happens before is a mixture of gamesmanship and daring, for there is so much hard racing to come. Bruyneel has a dream team at his disposal, with two men capable of handing him a ninth Tour victory. I’d guess he has three clear plans overall – one with Contador as leader, one with as Lance as leader, and another if both men are so close overall that Bruyneel can light the blue touch-paper at the foot of the Ventoux and just sit back and watch the fireworks! There are so many unknowns in Lance’s return to the Tour that, if you want to believe that he and Contador are rivals – and we’ll have to wait a while to know this - then you have to say Contador has the upper-hand before the race has even begun. The Spanish mito is younger, fresher, better prepared, and more sure of his chances than Lance can possibly be at the age of 37. Yet Mr Armstrong is no ordinary fellow - you don’t win seven Tours on the trot by being ordinary. Most certainly, Lance has given himself the ultimate challenge in his sporting life, for he has an awful lot to lose if it goes wrong.

‘Going wrong’ doesn’t necessarily mean losing the Tour. That descriptive would only apply if Lance struggles to be competitive this month – an unlikely scenario, but one that has to be thought out for the good of the team. I see in Lance a man who wants to win another Tour so very much, yet I also see a Lance who could become the consummate professional if he knew that by helping Contador win, Astana as a team would win as well. And Lance will know that 2010 is another year altogether, that it might just need a full season for him to tackle the next one at 100% of his ability. So don’t be surprised if the spin and hype already out there in pre-Tour debates turns out to be unwarranted – Lance still has to prove himself, three years after he last rode the Tour. Yet, even with his damaged collar-bone last March, Lance cannot get enough pleasure out of being back at the heart of a sport – and a race - he loves so much. It is his love of the Tour that will make him ride above his ability once more and thrill a worldwide audience once more. Win or lose, or more likely something between the two, the next three weeks are going to be extremely interesting!

This Tour isn’t just about Astana’s great pairing - there are other cyclists to consider as well! When you see how many national titles the SaxoBank team picked up last weekend, you have to respect their colossal strength in support of Andy Schleck, as well as their wish to show Sastre that his win in 2008 was more down to them as a team than to him as an individual. Cervelo is not CSC/SaxoBank, and the best they can do is hide Sastre between the tough stages and let the bigger teams run the show. Sastre’s secret lies in his ability to come good in the last week, so allowing for a great ride in Monaco on Saturday, you won’t see much of the courageous little Spaniard until the Alps. Denis Menchov won the Giro, and logically won’t be strong enough to win the Tour as well. But his Rabobank team are on a roll, so don’t be too surprised if Menchov makes it to the podium in Paris – I rate the ‘robots’ as much as I do Astana and SaxoBank. Cadel Evans will have his eyes on the podium as well, but any success will be down to him alone, for his Silence-Lotto team is totally underpowered, again. Vladimir Karpets cannot expect too much support from a Russian-Italian mix at Katusha, but the giant man will be a top contender throughout the race, especially as the last week unfolds. Two other cyclists have to be mentioned as potential top-five finishers – Christian Vande Velde and Roman Kreuziger. Vande Velde is enjoying an indian summer at Garmin, and despite his injuries in the Giro, he has every intention of at least equalling last year’s 5th place overall. Kreuziger is a Tour rookie, but a fabulous one! The man who won last year’s Tour of Switzerland and this year’s Tour de Romandie is one of the burgeoning talents of this sport – Kreuziger can climb and time trial with the very best, he only lacks the experience that is a necessary tool to making the top-five in Paris. Even so, a mountain stage-win is within his grasp, and it may well come in the dying minutes of the Tour – which is to say, on Mont Ventoux.

One of the joys of travelling around France to see the Tour is that one realises there is another life that goes on in France – normal life, it is called. Normality is a relative thing when the Tour occupies your mind and body for at least 18 hours of each day, but I’m pleased to acknowledge that I’m at that age when other things mean as much to me as Le Tour. Not for me the drudgery of a five-hour-long working session in the media centre after each stage, followed by a desperate search for food – any food – before moving on for the night. Armed with a mobile high speed internet modem, I’ll be doing my most urgent work in the media centre before fleeing to a carefully selected hotel and the succulent meal that awaits, letting the mobile Internet device do its work while I eat. France is heading for an extremely hot summer, and one of the best ways to celebrate that fact is to eat one’s dinner on an outside terrace before the light fades, washed down with a cold beer and then a bottle of rich, red wine. The bicycle comes with me once again this year, for the shorter stages will allow me that extra hour in which to ride off the excesses of the previous evening and still make it to the start in good time. Yes, I’m looking forward to this Tour with more than my usual enthusiasm, for it is a Tour I intend to enjoy as much as I possibly can - even if I know work will get in the way sometimes… c’est la vie!

Previous 2009 Views:
January 19
February 12
March 7
April 15
May 6